2026 Oscars Predictions
It's Hollywood's Biggest Night...Again!
Hey there folks, just dropping in for another little Mike Check here… I have finally done it! After six years of saying, “I did really well watching Oscar movies this year, watching everything but the shorts and one or two other down-ballot movies, but maybe next year!”, I have finally completed what is known as The Oscars Death Race. Doing this is obviously a sign of a diseased brain and certainly proof of needing to be institutionalized, but as an Oscars lover (and hater) since I was 13-years-old, I feel some twisted affection and attachment to the Oscars and seeing what the Academy deems worthy of recognition every year. Sometimes they’re great, often moronic! But I celebrate them regardless.
2025… very good movie year! Perhaps the best of the 2020s for movies Controversially, I think there is a case for any year in the 2020s except 2020 (for obvious reasons) and 2022, a year most LOVE, but I’m lower on… I lean ‘24 or ‘25 as tops right now, though. In 2025, I watched 85 movies plus the 15 Oscar nominated shorts, so technically 100 films! I think I did a very solid job of checking out every major mainstream release (outside of like, A MINECRAFT MOVIE and FNAF2) and, of course, everything nominated for the 98th Academy Awards.
As always, I’ll give my prediction for what should win each category and what I believe will win (plus a movie to watch out for) and in some of the bigger categories, might even rank the five nominees. I’ll also give my brief thoughts on each best picture nominee and rank those. Then, at the end, for the sickos truly contributing to the legitimate degradation to our society, I’ll throw in a couple parlay suggestions for those trying to make a quick buck while watching that may have the means to wager on the night!
Without further ado, the 98th Academy Award Predictions (I’ll go in order roughly based on how awards were presented last year):
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benecio Del Toro- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Jacob Elordi- FRANKENSTEIN
Delroy Lindo- SINNERS
Sean Penn- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Stellan Skarsgård- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Should Win: Sean Penn- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Will Win: Sean Penn- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: Stellan Skarsgård- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
The Academy loves to award a villain, particularly in the Best Supporting Actor category. Even if this will be Penn’s third win and he has spent the entire duration of the ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER press run essentially doing his best to tank his chances of winning this award (going as far as not showing up to multiple of the smaller Award Ceremonies), he is going to win it, which I believe will also be indicative of much of the night to come.
Stellan is truly unbelievable in SENTIMENTAL VALUE, giving a really seasoned and professional performance, making it look incredibly easy despite being so hard, so he might be able to steal it, especially with the support of International voters, but it feels unlikely to me. Delroy would be a cool win and would seriously indicate crazy strength for SINNERS for the rest of the ceremony, but I don’t think that is happening. Del Toro and Elordi are just happy to be there (both strong performances, particularly Elordi, who makes a meh movie more watchable). My favorite supporting performance of the year is Miles Caton from SINNERS, but…no nom! It’ll be Penn.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
ARCO
ELIO
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
LITTLE AMÉLIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN
ZOOTOPIA 2
Should Win: ARCO (controversial, I know!) or KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
Will Win: KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
Watch Out For: n/a but LITTLE AMÉLIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN
This is kind of a weird category this year in that, personally, I think four of the five movies are all pretty similar in quality. Outside of Elio, which is completely forgettable, I think the category is all filled with fairly entertaining and moderately above-average animated films, but also nothing knocked me away. I’m partial to ARCO, the French Miyazaki-pastiche. It’s pretty obviously knocking off master animator Hayao Miyazaki for large stretches of the runtime, but it did just enough to move me that I ultimately didn’t care much. ZOOTOPIA 2 is fine. It’s cute, nothing crazy. LITTLE AMÉLIE is maybe the most impressively animated and might have some push from European voters (also a French film), but this one is going to be very easily KPOP DEMON HUNTERS and it’s probably the easiest category to predict on the night. It spawned a massive eight-week long number one hit on the Billboard Top 100 and it’s strongly animated and pretty fun. It will be a deserving winner. American animation really does have to step up its game!
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
BUTTERFLY
FOREVERGREEN
THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS
RETIREMENT PLAN
THE THREE SISTERS
Should Win: BUTTERFLY
Will Win: BUTTERFLY
Watch Out For: THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS or FOREVERGREEN
I’ve long been of the stance that the shorts aren’t so necessary to be included at the Oscars, whether Live Action, Animated, or Documentary, but this one does feel shockingly obvious to me… It isn’t a great category this year, but BUTTERFLY soars far above the rest. It is stunningly animated and completely unique while also being just tender and heartfelt enough, never in a way that feels too saccharine, though. The animation body LOVES stop-motion animation, so I cannot rule out THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS, but I think it’s just a fine short. THE THREE SISTERS is actively pretty bad and RETIREMENT PLAN is slight, at best. Maybe the Academy favors the slight layup environmental awareness short, FOREVERGREEN, but I feel pretty confident BUTTERFLY edges the rest of the field out and takes home the gold.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
FRANKENSTEIN
HAMNET
MARTY SUPREME
SINNERS
Should Win: FRANKENSTEIN
Will Win: FRANKENSTEIN
Watch Out For: n/a but SINNERS
FRANKENSTEIN will run away with this, and, despite being a merely fine film, will frankly run away with a couple of the down-ballot categories. Maybe I’m barely more partial to the costumes in SINNERS or MARTY SUPREME, but the actual work that went into appropriately costuming FRANKENSTEIN will make it a deserving winner. Lately Del Toro’s most impressive aspect as a filmmaker has been his crew’s attention to detail and designs, so it shouldn’t come as a shock. Maybe if SINNERS is tremendously strong it could steal this, but I don’t even think if it won a few of the bigger categories on the night would that mean it would win this. FRANKENSTEIN takes it and with ease!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BLUE MOON
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
MARTY SUPREME
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
SINNERS
Should Win: MARTY SUPREME
Will Win: SINNERS
Watch Out For: SENTIMENTAL VALUE
If the category was best original screenplay that actually should be adapted for the stage, BLUE MOON would take this comfortably. IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT has a strong script but I think the directing/acting is a bit more notable and will resonate with voters more, too. The screenplays of both SENTIMENTAL VALUE and MARTY SUPREME are masterful. MARTY SUPREME, in particular, is a rapid-fire whirlwind of carefully crafted dialogue with wit and fire. In a just world, MARTY wins here. But, this one is going to go to SINNERS, which is still very cool. Coogler winning the award would be borderline historic, since he’d be joining Jordan Peele as the only other black winner of Original Screenplay (and only ninth black winner in either writing category ever, sadly). The SINNERS script is sharp, particularly in the first two-thirds of the film, managing to juggle a bevy of characters with clarity and liveliness. It’ll be a very deserving winner in a pretty strong category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BUGONIA
FRANKENSTEIN
HAMNET
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
TRAIN DREAMS
Should Win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Will Win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: n/a but HAMNET
Like SINNERS in the Original Screenplay category, this one is a done deal. Anderson’s adaptation of Pynchon’s VINELAND (a sprawling delightful “messy” work) is nearly unimpeachable. It changes the time in which the story takes place but also manages to feel timeless (which is scary!) and it alters a few notable moments of the story but nothing feels unearned or out-of-touch. Every line of dialogue is essentially perfect. The TRAIN DREAMS screenplay is a funny one to nominate, given just how few words are spoken in the film (the award isn’t a “Most Words” Award, but there is a real lack of dialogue here, truly). I find the FRANKENSTEIN adaptation to be a tad bit troublesome and while the HAMNET adaptation isn’t truly dire, it’s certainly not award-worthy! In fact, it’s a bit overwritten! BUGONIA is the second-best nominee here but nothing stands a chance: Paul Thomas Anderson will be leaving with his first Oscar (of many).
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
FRANKENSTEIN
KOKUHO
SINNERS
THE SMASHING MACHINE
THE UGLY STEPSISTER
Should Win: THE UGLY STEPSISTER
Will Win: FRANKENSTEIN
Watch Out For: n/a but SINNERS
Another technical category that FRANKENSTEIN doesn’t have a chance of losing. THE SMASHING MACHINE is impressive (Dwayne truly doesn’t look like himself, to a creep degree) but the movie was a huge flop. KOKUHO, the Japanese film about Kabuki theatre features quite a bit of excellent makeup all throughout the Kabuki performances but it probably hasn’t been watched enough and the film is merely alright. For my money, THE UGLY STEPSISTER, the Norwegian tale centered from the perspective of the ugly stepsister from CINERELLA, has comfortably the most disquieting and effective use of makeup and hairstyling from the prior year, but it doesn’t have a shot. FRANKENSTEIN showcases unreal makeup design for Elordi’s Creature and even if SINNERS might be the only movie that gives FRANKENSTEIN a run in any of these technical categories, FRANKENSTEIN is a lock here.
BEST FILM EDITING
F1
MARTY SUPREME
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
SINNERS
Should Win: MARTY SUPREME or ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Will Win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: F1
Often a Best Picture precursor, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER is a whopping 162 minutes that flies by. The editing is sublime. One of the longest films of the year never once has a moment where it feels boring or slow or in need of some fat trimmed. Tremendous editing that will be a very worthy winner, even if I’m marginally more partial to the editing in MARTY SUPREME, simply because that movie moves at a breakneck pace and somehow still always has space to breathe. F1 has an outside shot because the Academy loves to award editing/sound to war movies and racing movies (and it is well-edited, to its credit), but if it wins, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER-heads… Look out! SINNERS likely doesn’t have a chance here nor does SENTIMENTAL VALUE.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Amy Madigan- WEAPONS
Wunmi Mosaku- SINNERS
Teyana Taylor- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Will Win: Teyana Taylor- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: Amy Madigan- WEAPONS or Wunmi Mosaku- SINNERS
The SENTIMENTAL VALUE ladies will offset each other (though it seems like the industry has a lot of enthusiasm for Lilleaas), but I think what Inga does, particularly in the third act of SENTIMENTAL VALUE is staggeringly great. I love the Elle Fanning performance, too, and it is a HARD job, but she has no shot. This is a three-horse race, with Amy Madigan being the slight favorite right now and, to be honest, I don’t understand this! I know she has a couple of notable precursors, but I don’t think it’s even one of the three best performances in the movie and it has no other nominations. It’s a fine showing, but I think it would age rather strangely and would NOT be a great win.
I think if Wunmi wins this early, it will bode very well for SINNERS’ fortune for the rest of the night. She is the quiet heartbeat of the movie and would be a worthy winner, but so is Teyana Taylor of ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and I think a lot of voters are going to be writing that title quite a lot while casting their ballots. Teyana gets a few more colors to play as Perfidia Beverly Hills than some of the other nominees here and despite being in the film for but a brief stint, her presence looms large the whole time. I’d love it if she won and think she will!
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
FRANKENSTEIN
HAMNET
MARTY SUPREME
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SINNERS
Should Win: SINNERS
Will Win: FRANKENSTEIN
Watch Out For: SINNERS
I’m going to be a bit of a coward here, because I would LOVE to predict a SINNERS upset here (and I feel confident that if it were to steal a technical award from FRANKENSTEIN, it would be this one), but I just ultimately don’t think it is going to happen. Guillermo has his design elements down and the Academy just loves to reward his films; he is an Oscars darling! Even though he didn’t actually design the look of the production (Tamara Deverell did), voters like to reward his movies. Nothing besides SINNERS even has a shot, even if I love the look of both MARTY and ONE BATTLE. I would’ve liked to have seen SENTIMENTAL VALUE to get a nomination here over HAMNET since that house is SO integral to the movie. But I do think the construction of the juke joint in SINNERS and the feel of that gives it just an outside chance of stealing it, but back FRANKENSTEIN here for your party ballots.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Dear Me” (DIANE WARREN: RELENTLESS)
“Golden” (KPOP DEMON HUNTERS)
“I Lied To You” (SINNERS)
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” (VIVA VERDI!)
“Train Dreams” (TRAIN DREAMS)
Should Win: “I Lied To You” (SINNERS)
Will Win: “Golden” (KPOP DEMON HUNTERS)
Watch Out For: n/a… but I guess “I Lied To You” (SINNERS)
I watched all five of these films, unfortunately; I watched three of them because three of these were real movies and had multiple nominations across the night. I watched VIVA VERDI!, the Italian documentary about an old folks home for aging opera singers (as fun of a movie as it sounds) and the deeply shameful DIANE WARREN: RELENTLESS because I have an illness. “Golden” was a number one hit across the globe for eight straight weeks; it is winning this award 10000% and there isn’t much to talk about (and it is a great song, for what it’s worth), but I think there is a real argument that “I Lied To You” from SINNERS should win, actually. It is the moment that incites our characters to ultimately march towards their doom and the sequence when the song plays is one of the great movie sequences of 2025. I hope Diane Warren is nominated every year for the rest of her life and never wins.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS
ARMED ONLY WITH A CAMERA: THE LIFE AND DEATH OF BRENT RENAUD
CHILDREN NO MORE: “WERE AND GONE”
THE DEVIL IS BUSY
PERFECTLY A STRANGENESS
Should Win: THE DEVIL IS BUSY
Will Win: ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS
Watch Out For: ARMED ONLY WITH A CAMERA: THE LIFE AND DEATH OF BRENT RENAUD
Rough category here! Basically one good one, one alright one, one genuinely bewildering submission (neither good nor bad), and two eyerolling ones. ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS is fine and effective enough, entirely focused on the parents, families, and remaining rooms of the children who have lost their lives to gun violence at school shootings in America. Unfortunately, you know exactly what this short is instantly without watching it. It’s perfectly fine. THE DEVIL IS BUSY is a mostly powerful short about workers in an abortion clinic in Atlanta; the main subject of the short, Tracii, is a fairly compelling and affecting figure. CHILDREN NO MORE is well-meaning enough but basically offers people in Gaza nothing actually (the doc short is somewhat self-serving for Israelis that have their hearts in the right place, but their protest of their fascist government is a bit toothless). PERFECTLY A STRANGENESS is baffling and I think almost impossible to define as a Documentary Short. Absurd submission.
If ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS doesn’t win, I believe it’ll go to ARMED ONLY WITH A CAMERA, which I found to be a tad bit troubling! While I think it is sad that a journalist (Brent Renaud) was murdered for trying to document global conflict across the world and I think that targeting journalists is garishly evil, I think the way the documentary short is constructed is shockingly poor and gives very little insight into the man! It’s mostly a montage of his greatest journalism hits, but it’s a pretty shoddy documentary, despite having the second-best odds to win. I do think this goes to ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS, though.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
THE ALABAMA SOLUTION
COME SEE ME IN THE GOOD LIGHT
CUTTING THROUGH ROCKS
MR. NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN
THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
Should Win: THE ALABAMA SOLUTION
Will Win: THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
Watch Out For: MR. NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN
Kind of another rough category! The documentary branch needs to step it up! I think MR. NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN is an incredibly vain and self-serving documentary that has genuinely disturbing ethical implications throughout the documentary. COME SEE ME IN THE GOOD LIGHT is emotionally effective enough and features an artistic couple dealing with a terminal cancer diagnosis, but I think as a documentary it’s a bit redundant and cloying. CUTTING THROUGH ROCKS is fine and does feature a genuinely brave central figure but it’s made in fairly boring fashion.
I think THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR is going to win and I cannot deny that it emotionally devastated me (a documentary put entirely together of police footage from the night a white neighbor murdered the mother of a black family in front of her children and the fallout), I have serious questions about the ability of extremely young children to consent to having their image and this night and moment broadcast everywhere and who the audience is for a documentary like this. I also think the documentary suffers from not at all questioning or looking into the role the police played (or failed to play) in causing this murder to occur. Again, I was destroyed by it so it is hard to criticize too harshly, but I just have some questions.
My pick here would be THE ALABAMA SOLUTION, a documentary made because of the ingenuity of convicts in Alabama. It’s about the cruelty and torture being inflicted upon incarcerated men by the state and ultimately how America is a broken, failed nation. It does manage to display a courage I cannot fathom and a steadfastness of human spirit that broke me, truly. It’s sort of standard documentary fare, but it’s effective and I have the least amount of questions about it. I worry MR. PUTIN could win because the voters are very stupid, but I’ll stick to THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR, which has the backing of Netflix, and which I’ll basically be fine with winning.
BEST SOUND
F1
FRANKENSTEIN
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SINNERS
SIRĀT
Should Win: F1 or SIRĀT
Will Win: F1
Watch Out For: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
I don’t really think anything has much of a shot of stealing this from F1. As I mentioned earlier, the Academy loves to give Sound/Editing to war movies and racing movies; obviously, F1 satisfies the latter. On some level, maybe ONE BATTLE is the closest enough to a war movie of the films left (there is a ton of shooting and gunfire all throughout and the shooting really does feel and sound intensely real) that it could steal this, especially if voters are just voting it for everything, but I don’t really see it. FRANKENSTEIN frankly has no shot and I’m not quite sure the case for SINNERS either. SIRĀT honestly has surreally great sound and is a movie about raves and land mines, but the movie isn’t getting a push like that and ultimately, also isn’t that great! It’s F1 here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
F1
JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH
THE LOST BUS
SINNERS
Should Win: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
Will Win: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
Watch Out For: F1
AVATAR is a visual spectacle, a true VFX feast. It’s almost pointless to talk about this category! SINNERS is at its worst when relying on its third-act visual effects, JURASSIC WORLD looks… fine… but we’ve seen it a few times already and the movie is AWFUL. THE LOST BUS has impressive looking fire VFX but again… that’s just a movie that nobody really saw and it’s fine, at best. Maybe it’s F1 as a valid challenger to AVATAR but no! James Cameron has committed his artistic life making these VFX masterpieces and I’m fine with it. Deserved trophy coming.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
BUTCHER’S STAIN
A FRIEND OF DOROTHY
JANE AUSTEN’S PERIOD DRAMA
THE SINGERS
TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA
Should Win: TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA or THE SINGERS
Will Win: TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA
Watch Out For: THE SINGERS
Another somewhat tough category! BUTCHER’S STAIN, the short out of Israel about a butcher being fired for being accused of taking down hostage posters in his break room sort of fails on every level. A FRIEND OF DOROTHY is sweet enough but as predictable as anything I watched this year. While I admire the Academy nominating a “comedy” with PERIOD DRAMA, it ultimately reads too much like an SNL or 30 ROCK bit and less like something worthy of an Oscar. The only two good shorts are THE SINGERS, which I frankly LOVED, or TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA, which I also was quite impressed by. THE SINGERS spoke more to me and I found the voices of the cast to be marvelous, but TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA is a bit more artistically impressive and I can easily see the Academy gleefully voting for this one. It’ll be close between those two, but I think SALIVA narrowly edges out SINGERS.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
FRANKENSTEIN
MARTY SUPREME
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SINNERS
TRAIN DREAMS
Should Win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Will Win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: SINNERS
TRAIN DREAMS looks very good but is doing such extreme Malick karaoke that it almost becomes distracting. FRANKENSTEIN doesn’t really look that good? Why was it nominated here? The three best films of the year are worthy of duking it out here. MARTY doesn’t really have a chance, even if I think it deserves Silver here. It’s between SINNERS and ONE BATTLE and, like much of the night, I think ONE BATTLE is just slightly better looking than SINNERS, especially when considering the brief third-act stretch where the movie looks shockingly goofy as it devolves into borderline MCU-schlock. I think both films look legitimately excellent but there isn’t a second of ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER where each frame doesn’t look perfect. Look for it to win here.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
THE SECRET AGENT
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
SIRĀT
THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB
Should Win: Anything save for SIRĀT, but… SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Will Win: SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Watch Out For: THE SECRET AGENT
This is a VERY strong showing this year. Outside of SIRĀT, which, frankly, doesn’t work, I think this group features four of the 13 best films of 2025 and three of the best eight! HIND RAJAB is genuinely a difficult film to watch; it was one of the most emotionally devastating movies I have maybe ever seen, to be honest. It is effective and awful, totally damning and would be an unreal and shocking win. I think SENTIMENTAL VALUE, THE SECRET AGENT, and IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT are all a slight cut above it and I would rank them in that order but if somebody argued to me for one of those three as the best International Film from last year, I wouldn’t argue or bat an eyelash. ACCIDENT features possibly one of my favorite final 20 minutes out of any movie this year, THE SECRET AGENT might feature my favorite shot (the split diopter moment had me jumping out of my seat) and SENTIMENTAL VALUE might have the most impressive cast of performances on the year (one of three films to have four acting nominations this year). I would barely eek out SENTIMENTAL VALUE as the best of the year (and I think, unfortunately some voters may award the International Film with the most English spoken), with Trier’s direction barely giving it an edge, but if the Academy and the passionate people of Brazil pushed THE SECRET AGENT to a victory, I wouldn’t be mildly shocked and I would truly celebrate it.
BEST SCORE
BUGONIA (Jerskin Fendrix)
FRANKENSTEIN (Alexandre Desplat)
HAMNET (Max Richter)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER (Jonny Greenwood)
SINNERS (Ludwig Goransson)
Should Win: Daniel Lopatin (MARTY SUPREME) but unfortunately the Academy is filled with morons… of the nominees, I guess BUGONIA (Jerskin Fendrix)
Will Win: SINNERS (Ludwig Goransson)
Watch Out For: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER (Jonny Greenwood)
I actually think this is a sneaky weak category this year and it is often a strong one! I think the last few years has really shown that the Music Branch has a long way to go towards accepting newer, different styles of music when nominating films. The CHALLENGERS snub from last year was egregious and snubbing Lopatin for MARTY SUPREME this year is frankly insane. I’m honestly not that crazy about the Greenwood or Goransson scores from the two Best Picture frontrunners. They’re both fine (and Goransson’s is even QUITE good) but both have been better in the past. I couldn’t hum the FRANKENSTEIN or HAMNET scores if you pointed a gun at my head and commanded me to. Upon rewatching BUGONIA, I was kind of struck by how silly and effective that score is. It has simply zero chance to win, but I think that would be an admirable pick. It’ll be Goransson winning his third Oscar here and relatively easily, too.
BEST CASTING
HAMNET
MARTY SUPREME
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
THE SECRET AGENT
SINNERS
Should Win: MARTY SUPREME
Will Win: SINNERS
Watch Out For: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SINNERS is the heavy favorite here. The casting is excellent, to be fair. Introducing us to Miles Caton is to be commended, as is assembling a collection of Michael B. Jordan (x2), Wunmi Mosaku, Delroy Lindo, Jack O’Connell, Jayme Lawson, and Li Jun Li. I might even say that is the best CAST, but when I read the award initially I think I interpreted it a tad differently, which is why I would opt for MARTY SUPREME, which is casting a ton of different actors from various backgrounds and experiences. You get the biggest young star in the world, Timmy Chalamet and surround him with a ton of non-actors who deliver incredibly believable performances such as Tyler, The Creator, Koto Kawaguchi, Kevin O’Leary, Luke Manley, etc etc, as well as giving us a return to form for Ms. Paltrow and introducing Odessa A’zion to the mainstream. I can also see the case for ONE BATTLE, which has an insane cast and also makes great use of actors and non-actors alike with Leo, Benecio, Penn, Regina Hall, Teyana (truly announcing herself here, too, despite having acted before), Junglepussy, Wood Harris, and introducing us to Chase Infiniti.
It’s an interesting category, because if it is BEST CAST, then I’m totally cool with SINNERS. But if it is the art of Best Casting, I do lean a bit towards MARTY. THE SECRET AGENT is wonderfully cast but if I was picking an International Feature here it would be SENTIMENTAL VALUE, and HAMNET honestly has no business being here. Regardless, SINNERS will win this one!
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Ryan Coogler- SINNERS
Josh Safdie- MARTY SUPREME
Joachim Trier- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Chloe Zhao- HAMNET
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: n/a but Ryan Coogler- SINNERS
This is a two-horse race but it’s going to be a slam dunk for PTA, one of the safest and easiest categories to predict of the night. Paul Thomas Anderson has been one of the greatest living filmmakers, American or otherwise, for the past 30 years and has gone widely unrecognized by the Academy for that. Just like Nolan with OPPENHEIMER, he’s going to get his coronation at this ceremony and he deserves it for directing the best film of 2026. Coogler would be an awesome win and also deserving, truly. He would become the first black filmmaker to ever win the award for Best Director, which is shocking and appalling but true. In another year, I’d love to see it. Zhao has no business being here (should’ve been Jafar Panahi nominated instead, personally). Safdie and Trier are both giving us gold with their films but aren’t quite there yet in terms of the Academy awarding them. PTA will run away with it.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley- HAMNET
Rose Byrne- IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU
Kate Hudson- SONG SUNG BLUE
Renate Reinsve- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Emma Stone- BUGONIA
Should Win: Renate Reinsve- SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Will Win: Jessie Buckley- HAMNET
Watch Out For: n/a but Rose Byrne- IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU
Sadly the most boring race of the year! Buckley has won practically every precursor the entire circuit and there will not be a moment of tension when this one is awarded. For my money, Chase Infiniti should’ve been nominated here and won for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER. The load she and Leo shoulder is insane and a large part of why it is the best film of 2026, but alas, she is not nominated! Of the nominees, most anti-Buckley people are big into Rose Byrne. I think she’s excellent in IF I HAD LEGS, but not quite as strong as Stone, one of the greatest and most decorated actresses in the history of the medium, or Reinsve, delivering a very difficult and internal performance in one of the best, most emotionally-satisfying films of the year. Kate Hudson is good in SONG SUNG BLUE, a movie that almost feels fake but is fine, but she is just thrilled to be with the rest of the crew. I’d take Reinsve, but it’s Buckley all day!
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet- MARTY SUPREME
Leonardo DiCaprio- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Ethan Hawke- BLUE MOON
Michael B. Jordan- SINNERS
Wagner Moura- THE SECRET AGENT
Should Win: Honestly, anybody but Ethan Hawke- BLUE MOON, for my money though, it should be Leonardo DiCaprio- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: Michael B. Jordan- SINNERS and Timothée Chalamet- MARTY SUPREME
I adore Ethan Hawke; he’s had a terrific career, starred in many of my favorite films and by all accounts, seems quite cool here! A win here for BLUE MOON would be deeply silly and also completely impossible. He has no shot. Wagner Moura has a truly strong and deserving case; he plays, on some level, three characters in THE SECRET AGENT and all impeccably. He plays a character that has to play a character (because of his witness protection program) as well as the son of that character in the future. It’s a deeply internal performance and quite impressive; there is a chance he could win because of the Brazilian voting bloc, but again, feels unlikely to me!
The race right now is, by all accounts, a two-horse race between Timothée and Michael B. Jordan. Both give excellent performances and are the faces of two of the three best movies of 2026, which goes a long way to me. Timothée was the favorite for much of the race but perhaps campaigned just a little too hard and maybe stepped in one or two many controversies near the end of the press run (the opera/ballet stuff will likely have no impact, because that video started going fairly viral about 90 minutes before voting concluded). Since the BAFTAs moment, there has been a surge for SINNERS amongst voters, with Michael B. even winning the award at the Actor Awards.
My true thought is that of the five nominees, Leo is kind of the only nominee with no question marks. Hawke? Many people likely (sadly) didn’t watch the movie and it’s a bit gimmicky. Moura? International performance with lesser name recognition to voters. Timmy? Maybe too young, too cocky, too desperate for the award. Michael B.? A performance in the horror genre, a genre often summarily dismissed by the voting body.
Which brings me to Leonardo DiCaprio, the lead of the best movie in 2025 that everybody has 30 years of history with in a movie that is going to be winning a LOT of awards throughout the course of the night. It is my biggest upset prediction of the night, but I have felt it since I saw the movie… I think Leo takes home his second. I think people will be comfortable marking down a name they’ve loved and has been in Hollywood’s life for decades, especially for an actor that gives a tremendous performance and only (wrongly) has one win. I think ONE BATTLE is going to win seven or more Oscars and multiple acting Oscars and I think this will be one of them.
Again, if early on SINNERS takes one of the Supporting Performance Trophies or steals a down-ballot technical category from FRANKENSTEIN, that could probably indicate legs for Michael B. Jordan or a SINNERS upset, but I’m sticking with Leo here in the most narrow voting we’ve ever seen. If it goes to Timmy or Michael B., I wouldn’t even be slightly shocked but I have to stick to my guns. Give me Leo!
BEST PICTURE
BUGONIA
F1
FRANKENSTEIN
HAMNET
MARTY SUPREME
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
THE SECRET AGENT
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
SINNERS
TRAIN DREAMS
Should Win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Will Win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Watch Out For: SINNERS
Like most of these predictions, ONE BATTLE should win and I believe will win, but SINNERS does loom large. Nothing else really has a chance. Here is how I’d rank the nominees, for what it’s worth:
“MEH MOVIES THAT WOULD BE INSANE WINS” TIER
10. FRANKENSTEIN
9. HAMNET
8. F1
These are all fine and competent enough but unremarkable; they have no chance at winning, but if any of them did, it would be quite disappointing (though, in some years any of these would be better than some of the winners). I think FRANKENSTEIN is just Guillermo retreading himself but it is fine. It’s well-acted with great production and creature design, despite a pretty strange screenplay and adaptation. HAMNET is also fine. Buckley gives an excellent performance (even if I think a LOT of actresses could deliver the same level of performance), but I’m lower on the Mescal performance. I think the screenplay is dire at times but ultimately whatever. F1 would be likely the silliest win ever (it won’t). It’s sturdy enough sports filmmaking fare from Joseph Kosinski. Pitt is mostly on autopilot but is able to turn it on just enough in the third act and the racing genuinely looks and feels incredible. Doing TOP GUN: MAVERICK in racecars but a little worse is fine alright by me!
“SIMPLY GOOD MOVIES” TIER
7. TRAIN DREAMS
6. BUGONIA
I like both of these movies, BUGONIA quite a bit, even. In many years, they would be like, the fourth-best movies nominated and would be the Oscars darling that a ton of people online would campaign for that the Academy would never award. I think TRAIN DREAMS is well-crafted and pretty tight, even if it’s a bit maudlin at moments and I’d say BUGONIA is comfortably one of Yorgos’ best projects with excellent writing, performances, and score. I could never credibly argue either movie as films that deserve to win, but these movies are both good and worthy of praise and being watched!
“GREAT MOVIES THAT WOULD BE AWESOME WINNERS” TIER
5. THE SECRET AGENT
4. SENTIMENTAL VALUE
If either of these won, it would be truly shocking but also so damn cool and borderline unprecedented! I talk at length about both of these in the International Feature category, but I think these movies are the sixth and seventh best films of 2025 both buoyed by excellent casts, impeccable writing, and sharp directing. I narrowly give the edge to SENTIMENTAL VALUE, but it is a true coin flip for me; these two films are truly neck-and-neck to me. Both great pictures.
“GOD-LEVEL MASTERPIECE FUTURE CLASSICS” TIER
3. MARTY SUPREME
2. SINNERS
1. ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
These are my three 5/5 star movies from 2025 and what I deem to be the best from this year, the movies that will join the film canon, age wonderfully, and be around for years to come. All of these were massive box office hits, made by auteur filmmakers, and have large casts of very talented performers. MARTY is shouldered by one of the great performances of the last decade, but it also has no chance to win Best Picture for a myriad of reasons.
This is between SINNERS and ONE BATTLE and while I think SINNERS has made things a tight and competitive race and would be an awesome, worthy winner, the best film of 2025 was ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and it’s going to win the whole thing.
And, as I’ve always done the last few years (and profitably, every single year), I’ll toss out a few parlays for any degenerate who cares to wager and maybe make a dollar off the Oscars:
THE BETS
The One Battle Wave Parlay (+888 without Leo, +14727 with Leo)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Picture (-500)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Director (-1500)
Sean Penn, Supporting Actor (-320)
Teyana Taylor, Supporting Actress (+210)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Adapted Screenplay (-1000)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Cinematography (-300)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Film Editing (-340)
(if you’re feeling VERY BOLD like me, add DiCaprio to win to this ticket)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Lead Actor (+1400)
Risk $100 to make $888 if you don’t attach Leonardo DiCaprio winning, attach Leonardo and risk $100 to make $14,727. Last year I gave out the five-leg parlay of ANORA winning Actress, Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing to pay out $2,400 and I feel similarly good about this ONE BATTLE parlay as well. The only real longshot (aside from the obvious Leo pick) is Teyana Taylor. If she wins early, the rest of this is probably a lock if you haven’t included DiCaprio. But if you’re trying to feel a little stress and chase a possible all-time high, include DiCaprio for the biggest Oscars shock of the last 15 years (outside of maybe Hopkins beating Boseman in a strange year) and go for glory.
The Big Eight Favorites All Cash Parlay (+473)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Picture (-500)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Director (-1500)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Adapted Screenplay (-1000)
SINNERS, Original Screenplay (-1250)
Amy Madigan, Supporting Actress (-125)
Sean Penn, Supporting Actor (-320)
Jessie Buckley, Lead Actress (-4000)
Michael B. Jordan, Lead Actor (-180)
Risk $100 to make $473. For having all the favorites here, I feel awful nervous about both Madigan and Michael B. Jordan winning. I recognize they both obviously can and would deserve to win, but they both have some stiff competition in each category, particularly Madigan, with Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku right on her heels. If you get through Supporting Actress with a win here, it just becomes (likely) a coin flip with Lead Actor, barring I’m totally correct about DiCaprio. Not my favorite bet of the night, but not a bad one, regardless.
Mike’s (Upset) Acting Picks Parlay (+1068)
Jessie Buckley, Lead Actress (-4000)
Timothée Chalamet, Lead Actor (+180)
Sean Penn, Supporting Actor (-320)
Teyana Taylor, Supporting Actress (+210)
Risk $100 to win $1,068. I ultimately see this as the most likely outcome of the night, even if Vegas disagrees! I think that Timothée has done just enough to edge out the late surge from Michael B. Jordan. I also believe Madigan’s strength is slightly overblown and Teyana will be part of the ONE BATTLE wave. I’m not too worried about competition for Sean Penn and Buckley, as indicated by Vegas odds, is the lock of the night.
The Sinners Best Picture Parlay (+1337)
SINNERS, Picture (+340)
Michael B. Jordan, Lead Actor (-180)
Amy Madigan, Supporting Actress (-125)
SINNERS, Original Screenplay (-1250)
SINNERS, Original Score (-1250)
Risk $100 to win $1,337. I think if SINNERS wins Best Picture (I don’t think it’ll happen, but cannot rule it out), there are a couple paths towards it. It could be that it steals some down-ballot categories from FRANKENSTEIN, like Best Production Design or maybe Best Sound from F1. It could be that ONE BATTLE isn’t quite as strong as I anticipate, with perhaps Teyana Taylor failing to win for Supporting Actress (see here: Madigan) or Skarsgård stealing Supporting Actor from Penn. It also could be SINNERS actors and actresses upsetting, like Delroy Lindo or Wunmi Mosaku in places where OBAA is nominated, in which case we would know VERY early into the night that OBAA is in trouble and SINNERS is looking strong. Ultimately, as much as I’d love to predict a SINNERS cinematography upset or a Sound or Production Design upset, I just don’t see it! And I don’t actually think SINNERS ultimately even needs it! It doesn’t need a Coogler directing win to feel like it could happen. I do think it would be hard for it to win without Michael B. Jordan winning, though. Give me the two categories SINNERS is heavy favorites in, have Madigan edge out Teyana Taylor and Jordan to surge past Timothée in a big win and let SINNERS ride that wave to narrow glory.
Mike Finally Watches Everything And Gets It All Right (+1105)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Picture (-500)
TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA, Live-Action Short (+125)
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS, Animated Feature (-1250)
BUTTERFLY, Animated Short (-135)
THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR, Documentary Feature (-180)
ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS, Documentary Short (-190)
Risk $100 to win $1,105. This is dicey because nothing feels locked in here outside of DEMON HUNTERS and ONE BATTLE and many of these categories are always wonky, but barring THE SINGERS upsetting in Live-Action Short (which it could and would be fair to!), I think I have this one nailed down, especially having watched every nominated film… it’s going to be the favorites across the board here.